Sizing & Bankroll
What it is
Sizing is half the game. Two bettors with the same picks can have opposite outcomes if one sizes 5u on a C-tier hunch and the other sizes 0.5u. Our recommended sizing is tier-driven, capped, and Kelly-adjacent without being Kelly-aggressive.
When to use it
- Every single bet.
- When you feel the urge to chase a loss with a larger stake.
- When you have multiple correlated edges in one night and need a daily cap.
How to read it
Unit conventions
1 unit = 1% of bankroll. A $10,000 bankroll has 1u = $100. Recompute monthly. Do not adjust units mid-month after a loss.
Tier-based sizing
| Tier | What it means | Suggested size |
|---|---|---|
| A | Multi-book sharp confirmation, model agreement, calibrated soft book offering, clean enrichment. | 1.5 to 2.0 units |
| B | Solid edge but missing one element (e.g. only two sharp anchors, or model neutral). | 1.0 unit |
| C | Speculative: thin anchors, larger EV but more noise. Smaller positions, often parlay candidates or fades. | 0.5 unit |
Hard caps
- Maximum daily exposure: 5 units total. If you are at 4.5u staked already and a new A-tier shows up, take a smaller size or skip. Discipline beats opportunity.
- Maximum longshot stake: 1 unit. Any bet at +400 or longer is a longshot regardless of EV%. Smaller stake limits damage when the long tail bites.
- Maximum single-book exposure: 8 units. Spread risk across books, especially soft books that limit fast.
- Correlated bets count once. Two props on the same player are one bet. Same-game leans on game lines and totals are one bet.
Kelly criterion (for the curious)
Kelly fraction f = (bp - q) / b where b is decimal odds minus 1, p is fair prob, q is 1 - p. Full Kelly maximizes long-run growth but has enormous variance. Most pros use quarter Kelly (0.25 × f) or half Kelly (0.5 × f). Our tier-based sizing approximates quarter-to-half Kelly for typical edge sizes (3-6%).
Worked example
Bankroll: $20,000 (1u = $200) Day's plays: 1. NFL spread, tier A, EV 4.1% -> 2.0u = $400 2. NBA player prop, tier B, EV 5.8% -> 1.0u = $200 3. MLB longshot ML +475, tier C, EV 6.2% -> 0.5u = $100 (longshot cap honored) 4. NCAAB total, tier A, EV 3.2% -> 1.5u = $300 Total staked: 5.0u = $1,000. AT the daily cap. New pick arrives at 7 PM: NHL ML, tier B, EV 4.0%. Decision: skip. Cap reached. Tomorrow.
Even when the new pick looks good, the cap holds. The cap is not the enemy of opportunity, it is the enemy of overconfidence.
Common mistakes
- Sizing by feel. Feel is variance disguised as conviction. Use the table.
- Doubling up to recover losses. Martingale is the fastest way to ruin. The right size today is the same as the right size yesterday.
- Treating bonus money as house money. Once it's in your account, it is your money. Size identically.
- Ignoring correlation. Two NBA totals tonight could be two outcomes of the same league pace anomaly. One bet, not two.
- Pushing past the daily cap. If the cap feels restrictive, the cap is working. It exists for the days variance is brutal.